Fuel Expense Isn’t The Crisis-

June 4th, 2008

by Michael J. Boyd…. Forbes
Here’s some heresy. The airline industry’s real problems are not fuel-based. Just parking airplanes, reducing capacity and dropping suddenly-unprofitable routes only make a dysfunctional airline system a little smaller. That’s because most carriers have ignored controlling the No. 1 cost metric in the scheduled airline business: minutes.

Yes, minutes. That’s the No. 1 resource and the No. 1 cost driver in every airline operation. They are the baseline airline metric. Cut minutes. Cut costs. It’s that simple. Everything is driven by how airlines use minutes. Maintenance costs. Labor costs. Fuel utilization. Customer service. Revenue. How an airline structures itself to use minutes can be the determinant if it makes money or just produces red ink. High fuel costs have only made this more obvious.

But minute-management is totally ignored in many aspects of the business. Any frequent traveler can see it, if he looks. Some airlines will protest, “We look at all aspects of our operations on an ongoing basis.” Sure they do. About as effectively as Ray Charles directing traffic.

Too often, airlines operate on the basis of just moving airplanes, which is not the business they’re in. They are in the business of moving human passengers from Point A to Point B, often with an intermediate connecting point in between. Airplanes really don’t care when or how they get someplace. Passengers do. And that means a need for total worship of the value of minutes.

Example: How often does a flight arrive late at a hub with a cabin-load of passengers on very short connections, and there’s no additional preparation on the ground to get them and their bags connected?

Example: A flight arrives at the connecting hub 20 minutes late. Yet when it pulls in, it’s another five extra minutes wasted because when the last 747 jumbo jet left, the numskull manager on duty didn’t have the brains to tell the agent to re-position the jet bridge for the smaller 737 that’s next. Minutes wasted. Passengers mis-connected. Money squandered for no reason other than mismanagement. But a lot of airline chiefs are oblivious to it.

There’s the late-arriving “regional jet” with a connecting time to Concourse B suitable only for Olympic sprinters. Yet the ground crew responsible for retrieving “carry-on” from the rear bin moves at the speed of sumo wrestlers. See, a regional jet does not really “arrive” until the last passenger has his “carry-on” roller bag tossed onto the end of the jet way or into the puddle at the bottom of the air stairs. But minutes are not a part of this thought process.

Example: How often does a flight arrive at a gate and sit for three to four minutes until somebody decides to saunter out to direct it in? That three minutes of the 737 sitting out there might be an additional $250 in wasted fuel, crew time and maintenance.

Example: How much effort is applied to getting a late-arriving aircraft off the gate a quickly as possible, to get it closer to being back on schedule? A lot of airline operations are rote and routine. “We get 30 minutes by the book to turn it, so that’s what we’ll do.” That’s fine. But don’t go blaming OPEC for your high costs.

Example: air traffic control (ATC). The incompetently managed air traffic control system inflicts billions in excess costs annually. It starts with the need to factor in more minutes (read: expense) into flight schedules to accommodate the inefficiency of this obsolete system. Even with this, 20% of flights are still arriving “late,” i.e., more than 15 minutes off-schedule.

If it’s just 16 minutes, this costs a bundle of money. Figure in engine reserves, fuel, crew and other maintenance items, and it’s another $400 to $500 in extra costs. Plus the cascading expenses of customer misconnections. Multiply that out for, say, American or United. Big money.

Yet how much outrage has been expressed by the airline industry about ATC? Answer, none. Cocktails and mindless repartee with the FAA administrator at industry social functions seem to take priority to the minutes wasted and the losses the system inflicts on a carrier’s shareholders, employees and customers.

Bottom line: Fuel isn’t the solution. It’s managing minutes. Airlines use fuel to move airplanes, and moving airplanes is what makes money. Slowing flights down to save fuel isn’t a universal answer either. That only keeps them in the sky longer, increasing other time-delineated costs, such as maintenance and crew time.

The point is that airlines cannot survive on saving fuel. Just on saving minutes.

Michael J. Boyd is president of the Boyd Group, an aviation consulting, research and forecasting firm based in Evergreen, Colo.

Times have never been tougher for airlines

June 4th, 2008

If you think it’s getting expensive to fly now in the world of sky-high oil prices, spare a thought for the long-suffering airline shareholder.

While American Airlines is charging passengers $15 for their first bag, and British Airways is announcing another rise in its fuel surcharge, those who have invested in airline shares risk losing their shirts in a way that even Heathrow Terminal Five can’t match.

Last week saw double-digit falls in the share prices of Iberia, Air France-KLM, Finnair, and Lufthansa following a series of profit warnings across the industry. Even Ryanair, with the tightest cost base and the fullest flights, reckons it can do no more than break-even with oil at current prices.

24 down, dozens more to go
Many rivals would see that as an achievement. In the last six months 24 airlines have collapsed while trying to find their share of the extra $99 billion that fuel costs the industry.

Giovanni Bisignani, director general of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecasting a loss for the industry of $2.3 billion in 2008, from a $4.5 billion profit he expected just two months ago. If fuel prices remain at $130 a barrel the loss is likely to be $6.1 billion, he told the annual meeting of IATA in Istanbul.

These are dire times for the industry, but then dire times are never far away for this most over-expanded and over-optimistic of industries.

The problems of the airline industry have been blamed on various things over the years. After 2001 it was terrorism, then there were extra security costs for the post-September 11 world, plus inexorable price rises for landing slots at the world’s major airports such as Heathrow.

A list of industry woes
From 2001-2003 the industry fought recession, when businesses cut expenses by forcing many executives to fly in economy class. No sooner was recovery on the horizon then the US-led invasion of Iraq spurred more security fears followed soon after by the SARS respiratory illness crisis of 2004. Finally, in 2005 the soaring cost of fuel hit the top of the agenda and has stayed there ever since.

Losing money, year in year out
Buying airline shares is a remarkably consistent ways for investors to lose money. The only year this century when the industry made money was in 2007, and there won’t be another one for some time to come. Former American Airlines executive Robert Crandall put it succinctly in 2001 when he said: “The airline industry has lost as much money as it has made since the Wright brothers invented manned flight back in Kitty Hawk in 1903.”

For the real and underlying problem of airlines isn’t any of the many factors listed above, which after all are par for the course for businesses operating in an uncertain world. The real problem for the airline industry is its refusal to adjust to the problems of supply and demand. Quite simply there are more seats available on jets than there are bums to put in them, a factor which has remained unchanged for a couple of decades at least.

The flying zombies
Why does this happen? There are a few mechanisms.

Bankruptcy rules in the US which allow financially-dead carriers to continue flying while protecting them from their creditors is one cause. In Europe and elsewhere there is a different problem, which is the reluctance to allow cherished national flag carriers to disappear, or be merged with rivals.

When the Dutch government allowed KLM to be merged into Air France in 2004, it was a rare concession. The combined group went on to become one of the most profitable European carriers. Lufthansa’s digestion of Swiss International Airlines, finally completed in March after three years, finally ended that nation’s unsustainable flag carrier ambitions.

Blame Silvio
However, Italy’s national flag carrier Alitalia is an opposite example. It hasn’t made money in living memory, is currently losing €2 million (£1.6 million) a day and is being supported by government loans that are probably in breach of EU rules.

In any other industry it would have closed long ago, but a combination of union pressure to avoid job cuts and the new government of Silvio Berlusconi scuppered a rescue deal from Air France-KLM. With oil prices now nearly $50 per barrel higher than when it offered a deal, Air France-KLM must be glad the deal collapsed. Olympic Airlines, the Greek national carrier, is in a similar position and is too being supported by the state.

American idle
In the US Continental Airlines, United Airlines and US Airways have all vowed to remain independent, despite overcapacity across their system and their continuing losses.

Denver-based Frontier Airlines in April sought protection under the famous Chapter 11 of the bankruptcy code, joining ATA, Skybus and Aloha Airlines as bankrupt airlines which continue to fly, but cannot be sued for not paying their bills. These airlines, whose unprofitable capacity should be removed from the industry, are actually helping bring other carriers down by continuing to compete for scarce business.

So what next?
“All European airlines are in for a torrid time if oil prices remain even close to current levels. There are likely to be a number of spectacular (financial) casualties,” UK stockbroker Numis Securities said in a recent note to clients. It predicted that once the peak summer season is over, capacity cuts and bankruptcies will be inevitable.

The mathematics are compelling. With fuel at $130 a barrel it now costs $68,000 to fill up the tanks of a modern Boeing 777 for a single trip across the Atlantic from Toronto to London, according to Air Canada. That is $200 for each seat, on the very big assumption that all 349 seats are taken. Yet the fuel surcharge is $147 per passenger. It just doesn’t add up.

Fill seats at all costs
The airline executive’s first instinct is to cut prices to fill seats, followed by purchasing new and more efficient aircraft to keep fuel costs down and attract more passengers. You would think the industry is booming: Boeing alone has enough orders to keep it busy for the next seven years.

The reality is that this is a beggar my neighbour policy, loading airlines with debt they can’t service for aircraft whose seats they can’t fill, while higher fuel prices mean setting fares that too few customers are willing to pay. Something has got to give.

Airlines may have overcome the laws of gravity. The laws of economics are a much tougher proposition.

Browse books written by Nick Louth

US Air E-Savers- June 4, 2008

June 4th, 2008

Each Way From To

$264 Pittsburgh, PA Guatemala City, Guatenmala
$314 Richmond, VA Guatemala City, Guatenmala
$319 Indiannapolis, IN Guatemala City, Guatenmala
$354 New York, NY (LGA) Lisbon, Portugual
$368 Philadelphia, PA Glasgow, United Kingdom
$368 Boston, MA Glasgow, United Kingdom
$399 Atlanta, GA Glasgow, United Kingdom
$399 Washington, DC (DCA) Lisbon, Portugual
$419 Chicago, IL (ORD) Lisbon, Portugual
$419 Charlotte, NC Lisbon, Portugual

TERMS AND CONDITIONS

Purchase Ticket By Monday June 9, 2008.
Travel Complete Travel to/from Glasgow, Lisbon is valid from June 3, 2008 — July 12, 2008. Travel to/from Guatemala City is valid from June 3, 2008 — July 31, 2008.
Advance Purchase A 3-day advance purchase is required for travel to Europe.
Minimum/Maximum Stay No minimum stay; 30-day maximum stay.
Cabin Coach.
Travel On All or part of service may be on (1) US Airways, (2) regional or jet aircraft operated by US Airways Express carriers Air Midwest, Air Wisconsin, Chautauqua, Colgan, Mesa, Piedmont, PSA, Republic Airways, Trans States, (3) regional or jet aircraft operated by Mesa Airlines, (4) United Airlines®, (5) Bahamasair, (6) Windward Islands Airways International, (7) Lufthansa, (8) Spanair, or (9) bmi.
Blackout Dates Blackouts do not apply.
Other The number of seats available for this sale is limited. All fares are subject to change until purchased.
Ticket Refundability Tickets are non-refundable.
Itinerary Changes Changes to this reservation are subject to a $150 minimum change fee per passenger for travel to/from the Caribbean and Mexico. A $200 minimum change fee per passenger applies for travel to/from Europe.
Routing Select markets may require nonstop routing.
Roundtrip Travel Required Yes.
Other Discount This is a discounted fare and may not be combinable with any other discounts. Travel vouchers, future travel awards or airchecks may not be used as a form of payment online.
Security Fee A September 11th security fee of $2.50 per flight segment will apply. A flight segment is defined as one take-off and landing.
Passenger Charge PFCs – Local airports assess PFCs up to $18 per passenger.
International Taxes Fares do not include international taxes and fees up to $56
Purchase Through usairways.com, telephone reservations, or US Airways airport or city ticket offices. Tickets purchased through US Airways telephone reservations (800-622-1015) are $35 higher. Tickets purchased at US Airways airports or city ticket offices are $45 higher. Fares purchased through travel agents may incur additional fees.

More International USAir e-savers……

American Airlines Sale Fares – June 3, 2008

June 3rd, 2008

International Weekend Getaway Fares

Travel Dates & Times for Weekend Getaway Fares

Depart anytime between Tuesday, June 10, 2008, and Friday, June 13, 2008.
Return anytime between Monday, June 16, 2008, and Wednesday, June 18, 2008.
Tickets must be purchased by this Sunday, June 8, 2008, 11:59 p.m. (CT).
Fares displayed are for round-trip coach class travel.

From/To/One Way Fare

Aguascalientes, Mexico (AGU) – Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) $433
Anguilla, Anguilla (AXA) – San Juan, PR (SJU) $174
Bonaire, Netherlands AN (BON) – San Juan, PR (SJU) $205
Boston, MA (BOS) – London Heathrow, United Kingdom (LHR) $728
Chicago O’Hare, IL (ORD) – Manchester, United Kingdom (MAN) $898
Chihuahua, Mexico (CUU) – Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) $498
Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) – Aguascalientes, Mexico (AGU) $433
Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) – Chihuahua, Mexico (CUU) $498
Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) – Monterrey, Mexico (MTY) $413
Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) – Paris Charles De Gaulle, France (CDG) $979
Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) – San Luis Potosi, Mexico (SLP) $433
Ft. Lauderdale, FL (FLL) Nassau, Bahamas (NAS) $108
Miami, FL (MIA) Barranquilla, Colombia (BAQ) $258
Miami, FL (MIA) – Belize City, Belize (BZE) $438
Miami, FL (MIA) – Bogota, Colombia (BOG) $438
Miami, FL (MIA) – Cali, Colombia (CLO) $438
Miami, FL (MIA) – Medellin, Colombia (MDE) $438
Miami, FL (MIA) – Nassau, Bahamas (NAS) $108
Miami, FL (MIA) – San Salvador, El Salvador (SAL) $458
Miami, FL (MIA) – Tegucigalpa, Honduras (TGU) $438
Monterrey, Mexico (MTY) – Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) $413
Nassau, Bahamas (NAS) – Ft. Lauderdale, FL (FLL) $108
Nassau, Bahamas (NAS) – Miami, FL (MIA) $108
Nevis, Nevis (NEV) – San Juan, PR (SJU) $219
New York Kennedy, NY (JFK) – Barcelona, Spain (BCN) $892
New York Kennedy, NY (JFK) – London Heathrow, United Kingdom (LHR) $638
New York Kennedy, NY (JFK) – Paris Charles De Gaulle, France (CDG) $920
San Juan, PR (SJU) – Dominica, Dominica (DOM) $235
San Juan, PR (SJU) – Tortola, British Virgin Islands (EIS) $230
San Luis Potosi, Mexico (SLP) – Dallas / Ft. Worth, TX (DFW) $433
Tortola, British Virgin Islands (EIS) – San Juan, PR (SJU) $190

*Taxes, fees and conditions apply.

Additional Fees and
Restrictions May Apply

Visit www.aa.com/netsaaver for additional fare offers for this weekend and other travel dates.

Olympic raise flight prices today

June 2nd, 2008

Frequent air travellers to Greece are in for an expensive surprise as Olympic Airways has issued a hike in air-fares on all flights.

The price of jet fuel has risen nearly 60% since the start of the year and the new increases, which range from €5 -€25, have been implemented as of today on all foreign and domestic flights.

Athens is one of the main destinations from Cyprus airports, with half a dozen scheduled flights daily.

Lufthansa Specials – May 30, 2008

May 30th, 2008

Boston– Zurich
from $503

Charlotte –Munich
from $446

Chicago – Munich
from $549

Detroit –Brussels
from $560

Houston–Frankfurt
from $527

San Francisco–Prague
from $663

More Fares

Terms & Conditions

Fares are shown in U.S. dollars for Economy Class travel on Lufthansa or United. Fares are one-way based on mid-week travel and round-trip purchase; weekend surcharges may apply. Saturday night stay required and maximum stay is 30 days. Tickets must be purchased at time of reservation. Fares are subject to change without notice and are based on the most direct routing to each destination. Additional transfers will increase the fare. Fares do not include applicable fees, taxes and airport charges up to $215, including the September 11th Security Fee of a maximum of $10 per round-trip. Mileage accrual is based on the fare paid in the applicable mileage program Lufthansa participates in. Seats are limited and may not be available on all days/flights. Tickets are non-refundable and other restrictions may apply.

Science and Technology: Greek airlines turn to e-ticketing

May 29th, 2008

Starting on June 1st, Greece will use only electronic airline tickets, following a decision by the International Air Transport Association. National air carrier Olympic Airlines and Aegean Airlines say they are ready for the change. According to the IATA’s 2008 Corporate Air Travel Survey of 1,000 frequent airline passengers, some 89% prefer e-tickets.