’Tis the season: It’s not too early to buy holiday airfare
By JANE ENGLE
Los Angeles Times
Christmas in August? OK, it’s too early to string lights, decorate the tree and bake fruitcake. But it’s not too soon to buy holiday air tickets — or at least start shopping for them.
That’s because, with record fuel costs and the biggest cuts in flight schedules in seven years, fares over Thanksgiving and the Christmas-New Year’s period are heading skyward. Fewer flights mean scarcer seats and higher prices.
The least expensive U.S. air fares for the November and December holidays, when checked Aug. 3, were running 30 percent higher, on average, than at the same time last year, said Mike Fridgen, director of product management for Live Search Farecast, which analyzes past patterns to predict fares.
Although airlines are still evaluating demand and later may put some holiday seats on sale, bargain hunters probably will lose by waiting, several experts said.
“We will see some specials for Christmas and New Year’s,” said Tom Parsons, chief executive of BestFares.com, which tracks travel deals. “But they will be for limited days.”
If you need to travel on specific dates and can find a tolerable fare, buy it now, he and several others suggested. Taking his own advice, Parsons has booked tickets to Tampa, Fla., for Christmas.
So far this year, Southwest Airlines has raised fares several times, and so-called legacy carriers — American, Continental, Delta, Northwest, United and US Airways — have done so at least 15 times, said Rick Seaney, chief executive of FareCompare.com, an air fare search service. Seaney expects at least 10 more increases this year.
For holiday travel, “It’s going to be tough out there for people who really need less-expensive tickets,” he said. “It’s about getting a better bad deal.”
Prepare for sticker shock, especially if you’re headed for fun-and-sun spots or flying in or out of small or mid-size cities, which have borne the brunt of schedule cuts. Even big-city fares may surprise you.
Hawaii, served by fewer flights since ATA folded and Aloha Airlines stopped passenger service earlier this year, is an especially tough ticket. If you can find a round-trip fare for less than $1,000 over Christmas-New Year’s, book it, Parsons said.
In fact, the whole airline network is shrinking.
Airlines will operate 7.5 percent fewer domestic flights at Thanksgiving and 5.7 percent fewer at Christmas-New Year’s than they did last year, according to eSkyGuide.com, a global flight directory.
But don’t despair. Not every air fare has zoomed, and, by being flexible, you can often pare down the price. Here are some strategies:
•Shift travel dates: Even small changes bring big payoffs. A flier who balked at the $673 L.A.-JFK fare quoted above would have paid half as much by leaving on Thanksgiving and returning the next Tuesday. Veteran travelers save by flying on the holiday itself, and they avoid crowds.
•Use alternative airports: I always check this option. The Newark, N.J., airport, for instance, offers good public transit into Manhattan and sometimes lower fares than JFK. Flying into Providence, R.I., instead of Boston, about 50 miles away, can save $100 or more on airfare.
•Watch the market: Bucking the national trend, Denver-L.A. fares, priced at the end of July, started at 39 percent less than they did at the same time last year, said Bob Harrell of Harrell Associates, a New York-based travel and aviation consulting company.
The likely reason, experts said, is that Southwest Airlines, which often offers less expensive fares, began L.A.-Denver nonstop service in May, driving prices down.
•Consider connecting flights: Although going nonstop is less stressful and reduces chances of being bumped or losing luggage, it can cost hundreds more than taking a one-stop flight, Seaney said.